Are you like me?
Do you hate the drastic effect preseason polls have on future
rankings? Are you sick of teams
either being shut out of rankings because of their name or given rankings they
don’t deserve because of their history?
Are you tired of people not being able to explain their ballot besides
saying “because”? Well then you
have come to the right place.
It was four years ago when I decided that the way that traditional polls
worked didn’t work for me. Too
many pollsters were stuck in pre-conceived opinions about teams, opinions
formed sometimes through thorough pre-season analysis and more often stubborn
biases. Even I was guilty of this,
and, at least to me, it was painfully obvious when looking at my weekly ballot. So how could I remedy this?
Computer polls, to me, were out of the question. They merely attempt to quantify exactly
what I saw was wrong with subjective polls, and poorly at that. Algorithms and functions could not
supplant what I saw on the field, even if they tried so desperately to.
So, that is when I decided to mix the two. Take the data heavy, objective ideals
of a computer poll, and mix it with the human controlled rationality of a
traditional poll. From that, the
Rampage Poll Methodology (RPM) was born.
For two years, I tinkered with the system until I deemed it ready, and
introduced it to TBDPITL. Over the
past year I have refined it to what you see now.
The philosophy is simple; teams earn their ranking. That means that I rank resumes. The order of teams you see each week in
the RPM is directly correlated with what that team has accomplished this
season. If a team has a good
record and beats teams with good records, then they will be ranked high. If a team has a good record and beats
teams with poor records, then they will be ranked low. It is as simple as that.
Below is a brief overview of the basic ranking
guidelines. I encourage you to
read these before continuing on lest you mistakenly miss an important part.
1) Team and
Conference names mean nothing: Names are merely placeholders so I can make sure
that the correct team gets ranked in the correct spot. A 1-0 Florida and
a 1-0 Florida International are both treated like a 1-0 team, with no prejudice and
bias to past success.
2) Teams will
be ranked by resume: My ballot is meant to indicate who has had the most
successful season to that point. This is not who looks like the best
team, this is who has the best on field results. A win over a 2-3 team is
considered more impressive than a win over a 1-4 team, regardless of how the
victory was attained. If teams are deemed too close to call regarding
their resume, a subjective tiebreaker may be considered.
3) The final
poll is the goal: The point of this poll is to produce a final two teams that
have the best proven resume that season to play in the championship game.
The #1 and #2 in week 1 or week 7 are not considered the "best
team" but instead have the "best resume to date". Like all
polls should strive to be, this poll is a work in progress, with the final goal
to produce the two most deserving teams to play for the championship.
4) Judging
resumes is subjective: This is the one downfall of my poll, in my opinion.
I have to subjectively judge each resume and determine whose is more
impressive. This can be very difficult on a one to two spot difference,
as it is with any ballot.
5) Playing a
FCS team is frowned upon: A victory over a FCS opponent is only worth 1/2 a win
while a loss will give a team 1 1/2 losses. This is meant to be a
discouragement for teams looking for an easy win by playing opponents from an
inferior division.
6) Simple
ranking rules are implicated:
a) No team can be ranked above a team that has beaten them if both teams
have the same record. Three way ties erase any head-to-head.
b) No team can improve its ranking a week after a loss, but they do not
have to drop in ranking.
7)
Extracurriculars are ignored: Injuries, suspensions, bowl bans, and the like
are all ignored as either excuses or reasons to decrease ranking. This
means that teams currently experiencing bowl bans will be included in the poll.
So there you
have it, the RPM. I hope you find
this entertaining and thought provoking as we progress through the season. I know not everyone will agree with it,
and that’s the way it should be.
If you have ideas, questions, or comments, feel free to ask, I will
gladly answer them. If you want to
take a closer look at the intricacies of the process take a look at the
“How the RPM Works” post.
-Rampage