Maestro’s Bowl Game Analysis 2009-2010
Each team is given a Team Ranking Score (TRS) which is the average of 6 numbers : Scoring Offense Rank, Scoring Defense Rank, Total Offense Rank, Total Defense Rank, Opponents Winning Percentage Rank, and Scoring Margin Rank.
Each team’s distance to the bowl game site is established with a Home Field Advantage (HFA) given to a team that travels 150 miles or less to the bowl site. A comparison of miles traveled is established.
This is just a way to look at these teams and in not to be used for gambling purposes.
Ultimately these numbers don't mean much once the ball is kicked off. I understand that. They are just interesting to me when attempting to quantitatively compare teams. Passion, match ups, coaching and a million other NON STATISTICAL things really decide the game, but that doesn't stop me from trying to look deeper into the game. That is what this is all about.
A TRS difference of less than 10 points is seen as basically a push. Each game is classified as either a TRS : PUSH, SOLID or BLOWOUT.
New Mexico Bowl – Wyoming TRS 85.6 vs Fresno State TRS 53.2
Advantage in TRS Fresno State by 32.4 points - BLOWOUT
Advantage in travel miles Wyoming by 311 miles – No HFA
Spread -11 Fresno State, Result Wyoming 35 - Fresno St 28 2OT
St Petersburg Bowl – Rutgers TRS 54 vs Central Florida TRS 56
Advantage in TRS Rutgers by 2 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles UCF by 884 miles – HFA for UCF
Spread -2.5 Rutgers, Result Rutgers 45 - UCF 24
New Orleans Bowl – Middle Tennessee State TRS 54.4 vs So Mississippi TRS 58.4
Advantage in TRS MTSU by 4 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles So Miss by 355 miles – HFA for So Miss
Spread -3.5 So Miss, Result MTSU 42 - So Miss 32
Las Vegas Bowl – BYU TRS 34.2 vs Oregon State TRS 38.5
Advantage in TRS BYU by 4.3 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles BYU by 379 miles – No HFA
Spread -1 Oregon St, Result BYU 44 - ORSU 20
Poinsettia Bowl – Utah TRS 43.3 vs California TRS 55.2
Advantage in TRS Utah by 11.9 points - SOLID
Advantage in travel miles Cal by 167 miles – No HFA
Spread Cal -3, Result Utah 37 - Cal 27
Hawaii Bowl – SMU TRS 75.2 vs Nevada TRS 47
Advantage in TRS Nevada by 28.2 points - BLOWOUT
Advantage in travel miles Nevada by 1224 miles – No HFA
Line Nevada -14, Result SMU 45 - Nevada 10
Little Caesers Bowl – Ohio TRS 69 vs Marshall TRS 72
Advantage in TRS Ohio by 3 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles Ohio by 255 miles – No HFA
Spread -3 Ohio, Result Marshall 21 - Ohio 17
Meineke Car Care Bowl – Pitt TRS 24.6 vs UNC TRS 45.2
Advantage in TRS Pitt by 20.6 points - BLOWOUT
Advantage in travel miles UNC by 155 miles – HFA for UNC
Spread -2.5 Pitt, Result Pitt 19 - UNC 17
Emerald Bowl – USC TRS 46.3 vs Boston College 56.2
Advantage in TRS USC by 9.9 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles USC by 2354 miles – No HFA
Spread -7 USC, Result USC 24 - BC 13
Music City Bowl – Clemson TRS 29.5 vs Kentucky TRS 62.3
Advantage in TRS Clemson by 32.8 points - BLOWOUT
Advantage in travel miles Kentucky by 64 miles – No HFA
Spread -7 Clemson, Result Clemson 21 - Kentucky 13
Independence Bowl – Georgia TRS 50.5 vs Texas A&M TRS 63.3
Advantage in TRS UGA by 12.8 points - SOLID
Advantage in travel miles TAMU by 409 miles – No HFA
Spread -7 UGA, Result UGA 44 - Texas A&M 20
Eagle Bank Bowl -- UCLA TRS 64.3 vs Temple TRS 54.6
Advantage in TRS Temple by 9.7 points -- PUSH
Advantage in travel miles Temple by 2178 miles -- HFA for Temple
Spread -4.5 UCLA, Result UCLA 30 - Temple 21
Champs Sports Bowl – Miami FL TRS 28 vs Wisconsin TRS 28
No Advantage in TRS - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles Miami by 911 miles – No HFA
Spread -3.5 Miami, Result Wisconsin 20 - Miami 14
Humanitarian Bowl – Idaho TRS 73.8 vs Bowling Green TRS 64.6
Advantage in TRS BGSU by 8.8 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles Idaho by 1437 miles – No HFA
Spread -1 BGSU, Result Idaho 43 - BGSU 42
Holiday Bowl – Arizona TRS 34.3 vs Nebraska TRS 42
Advantage in TRS Arizona by 7.7 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles Arizona by 896 miles – No HFA
Spread Pick Em - Result Nebraska 33 - Arizona 0
Armed Forces Bowl – Air Force TRS 41 vs Houston TRS 52.3
Advantage in TRS AFA by 11.3 points - SOLID
Advantage in travel miles Houston by 357 miles – No HFA
Spread -4.5 Houston, Result AFA 47 - Houston 20
Sun Bowl – Stanford TRS 46.8 vs Oklahoma TRS 16.6
Advantage in TRS OU by 30.2 points - BLOWOUT
Advantage in travel miles OU by 398 miles – No HFA
Spread -9 OU, Result OU 31 - Stanford 27
Texas Bowl – Missouri TRS 43.2 vs Navy TRS 54.3
Advantage in TRS Mizzou by 11.1 points - SOLID
Advantage in travel miles Mizzou by 590 miles – No HFA
Spread -6 Missouri, Result Navy 35 - MU 13
Insight Bowl – Iowa State TRS 79.5 vs Minnesota TRS 69.5
Advantage in TRS Minnesota by 10 points - SOLID
Advantage in travel miles ISU by 105 miles – No HFA
Spread -2.5 Minnesota, Result ISU 14 - Minnesota 13
Chick-Fil-A Bowl – Virginia Tech TRS 20.8 vs Tennessee TRS 31.8
Advantage in TRS VT by 11 points - SOLID
Advantage in travel miles Tennessee by 173 miles – No HFA
Spread -5 Virginia Tech, Result VT 37 - Tennessee 14
Outback Bowl – Auburn TRS 38.3 vs Northwestern TRS 54.5
Advantage in TRS Auburn by 16.2 points - SOLID
Advantage in travel miles Auburn by 637 miles – No HFA
Spread -9 Auburn, Result Auburn 38 - NW 35 OT
Gator Bowl – West Virginia TRS 40.2 vs Florida State TRS 58.3
Advantage in TRS WVU by 18.1 points - SOLID
Advantage in travel miles FSU by 500 miles – HFA for FSU
Spread -3 WVU, Result FSU 33 - WVU 21
Capitol One Bowl – LSU TRS 47.3 vs Penn State TRS 22.3
Advantage in TRS PSU by 25 points - BLOWOUT
Advantage in travel miles LSU by 242 miles – No HFA
Spread -3 Penn State, Result PSU 19 - LSU 17
Rose Bowl – Oregon TRS 24.3 vs Ohio State TRS 29.6
Advantage in TRS Oregon by 5.3 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles Oregon by 1233 miles – No HFA
Spread -3.5 Oregon, Result OSU 26 - Oregon 17
Sugar Bowl – Cincinnati TRS 25.3 vs Florida TRS 8.6
Advantage in TRS UF by 16.7 points - SOLID
Advantage in travel miles UF by 292 miles – No HFA
Spread -10.5 Florida, Result Florida 51 - Cincinnati 24
International Bowl – Northern Illinois TRS 51.8 vs South Florida TRS 48.6
Advantage in TRS USF by 3.2 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles NIU by 650 miles – No HFA
Spread -7 USF, Result South Florida 27 - NIU 3
Papa Johns.com Bowl – Connecticut TRS 45 vs South Carolina TRS 45.2
Advantage in TRS Conn by 0.2 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles USC by 650 miles – No HFA
Spread -4.5 USC, Result UCONN 20 - South Carolina 7
Cotton Bowl – Oklahoma State TRS 37.6 vs Mississippi TRS 32.2
Advantage in TRS Ole Miss by 5.4 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles OSU by 209 miles – No HFA
Spread -2.5 Ole Miss, Result Ole Miss 21 - OKSU 7
Liberty Bowl – East Carolina TRS 51.6 vs Arkansas TRS 33.2
Advantage in TRS Arkansas by 18.4 points - SOLID
Advantage in travel miles Arkansas by 180 miles – No HFA
Spread -7.5 Arkansas, Result Arkansas 20 - ECU 17 OT
Alamo Bowl – Texas Tech TRS 26.5 vs Michigan State TRS 46.5
Advantage in TRS Texas Tech by 20 points - BLOWOUT
Advantage in travel miles Texas Tech by 662 miles – No HFA
Spread -7 Texas Tech, Result Texas Tech 41 - Michigan State 31
Fiesta Bowl – TCU TRS 13.3 vs Boise State TRS 22
Advantage in TRS TCU by 8.7 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles Boise by 136 miles – No HFA
Spread -7 TCU, Result Boise State 17 - TCU 10
Orange Bowl – Georgia Tech TRS 32.3 vs Iowa TRS 41
Advantage in TRS GT by 8.7 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles GT by 660 miles – No HFA
Spread -3 GT, Result Iowa 24 - GT 14
GMAC Bowl – Troy TRS 59.3 vs Central Michigan TRS 33.8
Advantage in TRS CMU by 25.5 points - BLOWOUT
Advantage in travel miles Troy by 700 miles – HFA for Troy
Spread -3.5 Central Michigan, Result CMU 44 - Troy 41 2OT
BCS Championship – Alabama TRS 12.8 vs Texas TRS 10.8
Advantage in TRS Texas by 2 points - PUSH
Advantage in travel miles Texas by 538 miles
Spread -4 Alabama, Result Alabama 37 - Texas 21
Rankings by TRS
1 Florida 8.6
2 Texas 10.8
3 Alabama 12.8
4 TCU 13.3
5 Oklahoma 16.6
6 Virginia Tech 20.8
7 Boise State 22
8 Penn State 22.3
9 Oregon 24.3
10 Pitt 24.6
11 Cincinnati 25.3
12 Texas Tech 25.6
13 Wisconsin 28
13 Miami FL 28
15 Clemson 29.5
16 Ohio State 29.6
17 Tennessee 31.8
18 Ole Miss 32.2
19 Georgia Tech 32.3
20 Arkansas 33.2
21 Central Michigan 33.8
22 BYU 34.2
23 Arizona 34.3
24 Oklahoma State 37.6
25 Auburn 38.3
26 Oregon State 38.5
27 West Virginia 40.2
28 Iowa 41
28 Air Force 41
30 Nebraska 42
31 Missouri 43.2
32 Utah 43.3
33 Connecticut 45
34 South Carolina 45.2
35 North Carolina 45.2
36 USC 46.2
37 Michigan State 46.5
38 Stanford 46.8
39 Nevada 47
40 LSU 47.3
41 South Florida 48.6
42 Georgia 50.5
43 East Carolina 51.6
44 Northern Illinois 51.8
45 Houston 52.3
46 Fresno State 53.2
47 Rutgers 54
48 Navy 54.3
49 Middle Tenn State 54.4
50 Northwestern 54.5
51 Temple 54.6
52 California 55.2
53 Central Florida 56
54 Boston College 56.2
55 Florida State 58.3
56 So Miss 58.4
57 Troy 59.3
58 Kentucky 62.3
59 Texas A&M 63.3
60 UCLA 64.3
61 Bowling Green 64.6
62 Ohio 69
63 Minnesota 69.5
64 Marshall 72
65 Idaho 73.8
66 SMU 75.2
67 Iowa State 79.5
68 Wyoming 85.6
Home Field Advantage Teams
Central Florida
Florida State
North Carolina
So Miss
Temple
Troy
Biggest TRS Mismatches
Clemson 32.8 over Kentucky
Fresno State 32.4 over Wyoming
Oklahoma 30.2 over Stanford
Nevada 28.2 over SMU
Central Michigan 25.5 over Troy
Closest TRS Match Ups
Miami FL tied with Wisconsin
Connecticut 0.2 over South Carolina
Texas 2.0 over Alabama
Rutgers 2.0 over Central Florida
Ohio 3.0 over Marshall
Results Update 1/7
TRS advantage is 20-13 straight up (Champs Sports was a dead heat)
HFA is 1-5 straight up
Fewer miles traveled is 13-21 straight up
TRS advantage is 14-19 ATS
HFA is 3-3 ATS
Fewer miles traveled is 12-22 ATS