I am still not over the Egg Bowl. I keep thinking about disowning the Rebels in football...but dammit, I just can't do it. In a season that started off with such high expectations, I tried to remain realistic. However, 8 wins is less than I expected. Oh well, 2 straight New Years Day bowls is not something that has been the norm in Oxford since the days of Johnny Vaught, so on to the preview...
This is a rematch of the 2003 Cotton Bowl, Eli Manning's last game in an Ole Miss uniform. The Rebels prevailed that day, 31-28. Will history repeat itself?
Ole Miss has played great and they have played awful, I am not sure which team is the real one. Against Ark, UT, and LSU, they looked like the team that could challenge for the SEC West. Against USCe, TSWNSNBS, Bama, and AU, they looked like a joke. Snead has been so hit and miss. The defense has been outstanding aside from 2 games. McCluster and Hodge have been spectacular and consistent all season. Which parts will come together on January 2nd is yet to be seen. Quick trivia for you: Who had better stats their JR year, Eli Manning or Snead? Go look it up, you will be surprised...
Oklahoma State came into this season with the same lofty expectations as Ole Miss...they too crashed and burned. Losing star WR Dez Bryant certainly did not help. The Cowboys still had BCS hopes however, until they were dismantled by rival OU...without Sam Bradford. OSU is stout against the run, and good against the pass as well. They can run the football, and get it done through the air also when Robinson is on. What was thought to be a weakness, OSU defense, turned out to be pretty good. Sound familiar? These 2 teams are nearly mirror images of one another.
This is a game of two teams with similar seasons, that had similar regular season endings. At the end of the day, I think the Rebels are too disappointed to give it their best in this game. The Seniors will be fine, but Snead will crack and the Defense will have too many holes in the ground game.
Oklahoma State – 34
It’s finally here, the National Championship Game at the Rose Bowl. This is a clash of traditional powerhouses. This is a game with two of the best coaches in college football will meet. This is a game with a Heisman winner, and a two time Heisman finalist. This is a game with 9 All-Americans. This is what college football should be. The #1 Alabama Crimson Tide will square off with the #2 Texas Longhorns on Thursday, and you should be ready for a hell of a game.
Texas Offense vs. Alabama Defense
The two teams that gave Texas and QB Colt McCoy the most trouble were Nebraska and Oklahoma. One of the ways they accomplished this was with a lot of matchup-zone coverage, which disrupted much of Texas’ dink-and-dunk passing game. Expect to see Kirby Smart call many of the same coverages, trying to take away the short-intermediate zones, where McCoy has been most effective. By limiting the Texas wide receivers ability to get separation, the Tide will attempt to take McCoy out of his comfort zone as one of the most effective passers in college football history.
Expect Rolando McClain of the Tide to play a huge role in coverage, as he has all year. The Butkus Award winner is one of the best coverage linebackers in the country, and plays a dual role on pass defense. His first responsibility is the underneath middle in zone coverage. Then, if the pocket begins collapsing, he turns up the heat in a delayed spy role, looking for any running creases that might open up and attacking the quarterback when he looks to run with the ball. He excelled in these roles against Virginia Tech’s Tyrod Taylor and Florida’s Tim Tebow earlier in the year, and will attempt to do the same against McCoy
The most effective way for Texas to slow down Alabama’s aggressive scheme is to attack early on trying to burn the Tide deep. Texas wide receiver Jordan Shipley is the Longhorns’ most versatile threat, but expect Texas to try to work their other wide receivers Malcolm Williams, James Kirkendoll, Maquise Goodwin, and Dan Buckner deep as well. Williams has proven to be the most consistent deep threat for Texas, and may be able to stretch the field if Alabama gets greedy.
Alabama Offense vs. Texas Offense
Texas Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp is a Saban disciple, and does a great job disguising fronts, coverages, and blitzes. This could prove tricking for the Alabama offensive line and quarterback Greg McElroy. The flexibility of two Texas defenders, defensive end Sergio Kindle and safety Earl Thomas, will allow Texas to switch formations easily without making personnel changes. Kindle is a natural end, but is also adept at linebacker when called upon, while Thomas has shown that he is just as effective in deep middle zone coverage as he is working man-to-man with slot receivers, as well as being able to sneak into the box to support the run defense. It could be difficult for the Tide early in the game to really know what to expect from the Longhorns.
Alabama running back Mark Ingram will get most of his touches on the ground, but may also be more involved than usual in the passing game. He is extremely effective on screens (see the 69 yard gain against Florida), but can also be used on flare and angle routes out of the backfield. If the Longhorns get overly aggressive, these routes could prove useful in burning them, especially on third and long situations. Backup running back Trent Richardson could very well be just as good as Ingram, and expect him to get plenty of carries as well.
Although when people think about the Alabama wide receivers, the first name that comes to mind is wide receiver Julio Jones, it’s actually wide receiver Marquis Maze that Texas should be most worried about. While opponents have been cheating safeties up into the box to try to limit the rushing attack, or rolling a safety over top to limit the big play to Jones, Maze is often left in single coverage. Expect Maze to get the ball on bubble screens, as well as coming out of the slot on the same side of the field with Jones. He’ll also get quick slants and outs on the opposite side of the field as Jones, and possibly the occasional deep post or out and up.
Final Thought
There really isn’t much of a talent gap between these teams. Both have been very effective using their style of play, which are pretty different styles. Alabama’s offense is run first, while Texas uses the passing game more, and that has worked for both teams this season. In the end, it may be Texas’ less than stellar rushing attack and predictability on offense that will hurt them. Against the best defenses they faced in Oklahoma and Nebraska, they were challenged to win by using the vertical passing game, and the Longhorns struggled to do so, putting up 16 and 13 points respectively. Saban and Smart have had over a month to game plan on defense, and this will be the best unit that Texas has faced all season. In the second half, expect Alabama’s powerful rushing attack to take over the game and earn the Crimson Tide their first BCS National Championship.
Prediction
Alabama 27 Texas 17