2010 PAC Preview
By El Ducko
The race for the Rose Bowl is between four teams in the Pac-10. At the top, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Arizona, all have strong upsides, but also will have obstacles to overcome to claim the crown. Stanford and Washington are a notch or two behind but will be primed for an upset every week. California, Arizona State, UCLA and Washington State will all have chances to win the coin toss before every game.
Oregon Ducks
Key Non-Conference Game: @ Tennessee
Key Conference Games: @ USC @ Oregon State
You would have thought that the Ducks had had their quotient of drama after the “Blount force trauma” debacle. But the off-season was anything but low key, and because of a series of incidents, senior Jeremiah Masoli is off the team, and the Ducks have to go with an inexperienced signal caller. Kelly is content to put off the decision of whether it will be Nate Costa or Darren Thomas as long as he can. A rotation is not what Kelly wants, but it might be the best option for the Ducks until either Costa or Thomas claim the job outright.
LaMichael James was thrust into the starting position last season and responded by setting a conference rushing record for freshmen. The challenge will be even greater for him this time, as without Masoli’s run threat, defenses can focus on containing him. That is where the passing for the Ducks will have to step up. For all his ability as a game breaker, Masoli was an erratic passer, and a more consistent passing game will be a benefit to the Ducks, increasing time of possession with longer, sustained drives. Jeff Maehl, who can catch over the middle, and has deceptive speed on deep sideline routes, heads up the receivers corps. An offensive line featuring all five returning starters gets the task of protecting the quarterback, and opening the holes for James, Kenjon Barner, and freshman, Lache Seastrunk to run through.
The defense is overshadowed by the offense for the Ducks. But it has as many proven playmakers as the more heralded offense. The heart of the defense is the linebackers, led by Casey Matthews and Spencer Paysinger. The line is anchored by last season’s conference sack leader, Kenny Rowe. The secondary, which was racked by injuries last season, returns fully intact this time, led by corner, Cliff Harris and safety, John Boyett.
The Call: For the Ducks it hinges on the quarterback gaining traction sooner than later, and the defense being up for every game.
Prediction: 10-2 (7-2)
USC Trojans
Key Non-Conference Games: @ Hawaii, Notre Dame
Key Non-Conference Games: Oregon, @ Oregon State
Last season the reign of dominance by the Trojans in the conference ended with a thud, and the off season hasn’t been a time for healing as USC was hit with sanctions and had to replace a coaching staff. Lane Kiffin takes over and will be directing the offense. When the other team has the ball, Kiffin’s dad, will be in charge. One wouldn’t think of Kiffin as a calming presence, but it could be that his high volatile personality is just what the Trojans need to get them charged up. On offense, Matt Barkley will need to be consistent, to make that happen, one of the receivers will need to step up to replace Damian Williams, who last season caught (70) passes, one less than the four returning receivers caught as a group. Ron Johnson is the most experienced of the group. Experience is not a problem with the running backs, with senior’s Alan Bradford and Stanley Havili, being charged with reigniting it from their tailback and fullback positions. The offensive line looks to be productive with three starters returning.
Nothing Barkley and the offense do will matter though if the led defense doesn’t break out from the rut they played in for most of last season. The front seven returns, led by tackles Christian Tupou and Jurrell Casey. The linebackers return intact as well, but that can be a good or bad thing considering how they functioned last season. The secondary will have new personnel and will have to come together quickly.
The Call: The mystique of the Trojans was shattered last season. Can they play with a reckless abandon with the cloud of sanctions over their head and no possibility of a bowl game?
Prediction: 10-2 (7-2)
Oregon State Beavers
Non-Conference Games: @ TCU (Arlington) @ Boise State
Conference Games: USC, Oregon
The last couple of seasons, Oregon State has started slowly, picking up speed later in the season, only to fall just short of the Rose Bowl. This time the Beavers have to do it while replacing last season’s All-Conference quarterback, and facing the most challenging early schedule in years; playing two top-10 teams on the road in the first three weeks. The job will fall to either Ryan Katz or Peter Lalich., and getting the ball to Jacquizz or James Rodgers is definitely the best plan Oregon State can go with. In the air or on the ground, either brother can move the ball. The Beavers have to be concerned with diminished returns from ‘Quizz if they overdo it. Ryan McCants will have to supply an alternative to loading James with 25+ carries a game. The Beavers can burn a defense in the air by throwing to James, who led the conference in catches per game, (7) last season. The offensive line will be one of the strongest units, returning all but one starter.
On defense, the Beavers have to deal with the losses of LB, Keaton Kristick to graduation and David Pa’aluhi, who left school to join the military. The defensive line retained its leader though. One of the best defensive linemen in the conference last season, Stephen Paea put the NFL off for a year to come back to the Beavers. He has speed and strength, but for the Beavers to excel this season, his sack total, (3) last season needs to pick up. The secondary also needs to shake up its performance from last season when it yielded (23) touchdown passes, compared to (8) interceptions.
The Call: If Jacquizz Rodgers can stay healthy all season and the Beavers defense pick up their productivity a bit, the Beavers have another great chance to win the conference.
Prediction: 8-4 (7-2)
Arizona Wildcats
Non-Conference Game: Iowa
Conference Games: USC, @ Oregon
For decades, defense has been the signature of the Wildcats, “Bear Down” is inscribed on the field. But it’s the offense that will be the firepower for this team. New Offensive Coordinator, Frank Scelfo, replacing Sonny Dykes, will have an experienced unit to call the plays for. It starts with quarterback Nick Foles, who claimed the position at the start of conference play and put up great numbers (260-410, 63.4%, 9 int’s, 19 td’s.) The running backs are four deep, led by senior, Nic Grigsby and junior, Keola Antonin. The Wildcats can also open it up in the air, with four receivers, led by Justin Criner, who combined for 161 receptions last season, all back. Making sure all of this goes smoothly is an offensive line that returns four starters.
Last season the Wildcats put up 33 or more points up in five of the nine conference games. They’ll probably have to surpass that this season if they want to come close to matching the success. Defensive Ends, Brooks Read and Ricky Elmore, are the mainstays of a defense that will have new players and a new system this season. Too emphasize the skill on the line, minimize the lack of experience at linebacker, and utilize an abundance of talent in the secondary, Arizona devised a new 4-1-6 formation, known as the “Cheetah”.
The Call: The Wildcats should be able to match or exceed the offensive numbers from last season. It’s the defense, particularly the linebackers, where two JUCO’s have to produce quickly, where the problems lie.
Prediction: 8-4 (6-3)
Stanford Cardinal
Non-Conference Game: @ Notre Dame
Conference Game: Arizona
Last season the plan was simple for the Cardinal; get the ball to Toby Gerhart 40+ times a game. This season, Gerhart is gone. An offensive line that returns five starters will have to open holes for a collection of inexperienced running backs, as well as concentrate a lot more on pass protection to allow quarterback Andrew Luck to get the ball to Ryan Whalen and Chris Owusu, who does double duty as a kick returner.
Keeping with the transition theme, a new defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, has come in and turned things upside down. The Cardinal will operate out of a 3-4 this season replacing the 4-3. Last season’s sack leader, DE, Thomas Keiser, will be playing linebacker this season, and expect FB, Owen Marecic to see notable time at inside linebacker. The secondary remains intact with Richard Sherman at one corner and .Delano Hall at safety.
The Call: With a lot of Luck Stanford will be in its games this season.
Prediction 8-4 (6-3)
Washington Huskies
Non-Conference Games: @ BYU, Nebraska
Conference Games: Oregon State, @ USC
Jake Locker has had potential all over him from the start. With the arrival of Steve Sarkisian and his pro-style offense last season, Locker might finally be able to realize his position as one of the top quarterbacks in the country. It isn’t just Locker that has burst on the scene though, Chris Polk emerged as one of the conference’s best running backs, and Jermaine Kearse and Devin Aguilar form a talented tandem of receivers. The offensive line is developing the continuity it needs to be a positive force.
Unfortunately, as soon as Locker and Co. move down the field and score, the other team gets the ball and the opportunity to go against the Husky defense. The defensive line was in such a depleted condition that coaches raided the basketball team to see if a recruit for Romar’s basketball team was interested in playing some defensive end. After a few workouts, the player decided to concentrate on basketball full time. There is always the Chess Club. The linebackers return two starters, namely, Mason Foster, and the secondary is led by the cornerbacks, Desmond Trufaunt, brother of current NFL player and former Washington State Cougar, Marcus, and Adam Long.
The Call: Steve Sarkisian worked wonders with the offense last season. If any measure of that improvement shows up in the defense this season the Huskies could see an end to the bowl drought.
Prediction 6-6 (5-4)
California Golden Bears
Non Conference Games @ Nevada
Conference Game: UCLA
This season the Bears may actually live up to their hype, because for the first time since Jeff Tedford arrived, there isn’t any. The Bears had made a habit of starting off with a roar, racing to the top of the polls, than just as quickly going in to hibernation, and plummet with just as fast. Tedford would be on the hot seat for sure if there was any real passion for the program, but so far it is low key at best.
Speaking of best. The best player from last season’s team, Jahvid Best, is gone. But he has been replaced by the player who will be the best player on this year’s team. Shane Vereen came in for Best at the end of last season and his production at running back will carry the Bears again. Kevin Riley returns at quarterback and will probably have another routine season, punctuated by some plays that make no sense whatsoever.
The defense will have to make plays throughout games and score off of them, or they will just be handing the ball over to their offense and be right back on the field again. The strength of the defense is the front seven, though that’s basically by default as the Bears’s secondary is in shambles with the departure of lock down cornerback, Syd’Quan Thompson.
The Call: On a good day, the Bears could make a game of it against the top teams in the conference, but for wins, they need to feast on the teams at the bottom.
Prediction 6-6 (3-6)
Arizona State
Non-Conference: @ Wisconsin
Conference Game: UCLA
Because of Arizona State’s defense, the Sun Devils stayed in games last season, and the defense should be even more stifling this season. But their complete lack of offense provides no margin for error and the bottom half of the conference standings is where the Sun Devils will end up. The Sun Devils started off hot in Dennis Erickson’s first season, racing to an 8-0 start before melting down the stretch. They couldn’t establish traction in ’08, and their defense was not enough in ’09.
Typically, bringing back your leading rusher and pass catcher would be positives, but in ASU’s case, with Cameron Marshall at under 300 yards, and Gerrell Robinson with less than 30 receptions, they are harbingers of another frustrating offensive performance. The quarterback is up for grabs, which should give 6’8 Brock Osweiler , the advantage. But it could fall to either Michigan transfer, Steven Threet or Samson Szakacsy.
The defense is back and it starts on the line with defensive tackles, Lawrence Guy and Saia Falahola, and middle linebacker, Vontaze Burfict.
The Call: If the Sun Devils can keep the scores looking like baseball games, the Sun Devils have a chance. When the other team approaches double digits, it could mean trouble.
Prediction 4-8 (2-7)
UCLA
Non-Conference Games: @ Kansas State, Houston
Conference Games:Washington State, Oregon State
The offense may finally be coming around in Westwood and that would be music to the ears of Bruins fans who have anxiously waited for Rick Neuheisel to make good on his talk of taking over the football landscape in Los Angeles. Nine of eleven starters are coming back for their third seasons and the experience and continuity should start to pay some dividends and catapult the Bruins from the bottom of the offensive rankings. Quarterback Kevin Prince is one of the returners and with him in the backfield is the leading rusher from last season, Jonathan Franklin. When the Bruins want to throw, Nelson Rosario and Taylor Embree are back, as well as four starters along the offensive line.
However, while the offense has coalesced, the defense is in a rebuilding phase. Gone from the team are tackle, Brian Price, cornerback, Alterraun Verner and at linebacker, the Bosworth brothers, Kyle and Korey and Reggie Carter and Jerry Siewierski.
The Call: Young inexperienced players will have to grow into their roles fast if the Bruins are going to make a move up the conference standings.
Prediction: 2-10 (2-7)
Washington State
Non-Conference Games: Montana State
Conference Game: Arizona State
The Cougars’ home opener is against FCS Montana State. If the Cougars emerge from that one with anything less than a decisive victory, Coach Paul Wulff won’t have to wait to be fired, he should just leave and the parents in the crowd can move to the sideline for the rest of the season. The Cougars return 17 of 22 starters, but saying that is a good thing is like advertising for a second voyage on the Titanic.
Passing will be the strength of the offense with two experienced quarterbacks fighting for the starting position and the four leading receivers are also back. James Montgomery was off to good start at running back last season, but a knee injury took him out, so it could be a group effort as far as the running game goes.
On defense, nine starters return and linebacker seems to be the area where the Cougars have assembled the most talent.
The Call: The Cougars are still a long way from even achieving a winning record, but are getting closer to being competitive.
Prediction: 1-11 (0-9)