2010 MWC Preview
By Coach Duncan
The Mountain West Conference began operations in 1999 and eleven years and three BCS bowl game appearances later, they are in their final year of the conferences current configuration. The conference will be getting a major facelift next season as it adds the WAC dominating Boise State Broncos while losing the four time conference champion Utah Utes to the Pac 10. With this season in sight, it is time for a prediction for the conference as a whole. There shouldn’t be a ton of movement from the teams in comparison to last season and here is just one guys opinion.
1 – TCU Horned Frogs (12-0, 8-0)
Biggest OOC Games: Oregon State in Cowboys Stadium on 9/4 and @ SMU on 9/24
This team returns 16 out of 22 starters; a trait common to a few teams in the MWC this year. The defense should be as solid a crew as any that Coach Gary Patterson has assembled, even after losing stars in Jerry Hughes and Daryl Washington to the NFL. The offense will be led by QB Andy Dalton, but he will have help from a running back duo that gained more than 1,300 rushing yards last season in sophomores Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley. With them carrying the ball, don’t expect a big drop off from the 3,114 rushing yards they gained last year. They will need huge performances on the road at BYU and Utah in order to sweep the MWC for the second season in a row. They are looking for a big season this year and as great as 2009 was, they are hoping for even bigger things. With what will most likely be their highest preseason ranking ever, they hope that this years 12-0 will net them a shot at a BCS title.
Offensive Player to Watch: QB Andy Dalton – With this senior already holding pretty much every record at TCU that a QB can hold, this team will go exactly where he leads them. He had 2,756 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions last year. Look for him to be even stronger as he leads this potent offense for a final season.
Defensive Player to Watch: LB Tank Carder – He had 89 tackles last season and is poised to step up and become the leader of this defense.
2 – Utah Utes (10-2, 7-1)
Biggest OOC Games: Pittsburg on 9/2 and @ Notre Dame on 11/13
This team is poised to be anywhere from 12-0 to 7-5, so a modest 10-2 seems fairly realistic as losses against Big East power Pittsburg and conference foe TCU seem inevitable; outside of those two games, they should be able to sweep their schedule. Only returning four starters on defense would normally be a problem, but with Coach Kyle Wittingham running the show, the defense should be in a good position; even losing starting MLB Nai Fotu to a torn ACL in spring ball shouldn’t keep Utah from a decent year. Right now the offense is ahead of where they were at this point last year and Wittingham typically believes that to be a good sign of things to come. The only hope they have with Pittsburg and TCU is that they are at Rice-Eccles this year. The Utes have gone 12-0 when their hardest games are at home, but this year will be the exception. Ten wins and a shot at a 10th straight bowl win would be a great way to go into the Pac 10.
Offensive Player to Watch: RB Matt Asiata – Can he return to for after tearing his ACL last season? Or will he lose out to 1,000 yard rusher Eddie Wide? Plan on both of these guys seeing significant action if the Utes are to have a solid season.
Defensive Player to Watch: DT James Aiono – He was the top JC prospect in 2009, but never saw the field after academic problems last year, hopefully he performs as expected.
3 – BYU Cougars (9-3, 6-2)
Biggest OOC Games: @ Washington 9/4 and @ Florida State 9/18
Questions abound for BYU this year as some out there think the Cougars could slip as far as 5th. I see Coach Bronco Mendenhall keeping things under control and still having a solid season and just don’t see the doom and gloom for the ‘Cougs. The biggest questions right now are who will replace MWC leaders Max Hall at QB and Harvey Unga at RB. Jake Heaps, one the biggest recruits in BYU history took a giant step forward this spring towards becoming the starter, but last year’s backup Riley Nelson still has a few things to say about it. They have a bunch of faces that have seen playing time at RB, but no one with the experience that Unga would have had this year if he had not left BYU voluntarily after an honor code violation. They need some big improvement along the offensive line to make some good things happen.
Offensive Player to Watch: QB Jake Heaps – Will he start or not? I think he will and when he returns home to Seattle to face home town Washington it should be a nice to start to his career. Look for some big things in store here for this kid.
Defensive Player to Watch: ?? Hard to say who will lead this defense this year as no one stood out in spring ball to take charge. They need a strong leader for this 3-4 defense, and I’m sure they will have one well before the start of the season.
4 – Air Force Falcons (8-4, 5-3)
Biggest OOC Games: @ Oklahoma on 9/18 and Navy on 10/2
Many returners from last year, including every RB, QB, and 6 of the top 7 WR’s and you would think that a fantastic season would be in store, but if the team fails to replace it’s entire missing starting offensive line, it could be a long season. If this new offensive line can gel quickly, you could see the best Air Force team in the tenure of Coach Troy Calhoun’s career. He hasn’t finished worse then 8-5 yet and this season should hold the line as it would be his 3rd straight year with at least 8 wins.
Offensive Player to Watch: QB Tim Jefferson – The 2008 MWC Freshman of the Year returns after a fairly routine sophomore season. He started 10 games last year, shortened due to an injury, and should easily be the full time starter until he graduates.
Defensive Player to Watch: SS Brian Lindsay – He is an up and coming sophomore who ended the spring as the starter. Since he is replacing a three year starter in Chris Thomas, he has some pretty big shoes to fill.
5 – Wyoming Cowboys (6-6, 4-4)
Biggest OOC Games: @ Texas on 9/11 and Boise State on 9/18
Another team that is returning 16 starters, they have a tough schedule to start the season. They have the potential to start the season 2-6 and would need four straight victories to end at 6-6 and make a bowl game for the second year in a row. They will need some serious help at the WR position and transfers DeJay Lester and Mazi Ogbonna to get there.
Offensive Player to Watch: QB Austyn Carta-Samuels – The 2009 New Mexico Bowl MVP looks to improve greatly on his near 2,000 yard freshman passing mark. Hopefully his new targets help him out and the Cowboys can get it done.
Defensive Player to Watch: FS Chris Prosinski – A team captain this year, look for him to lead the defense and help them stay focused and together as they make a run for another bowl game.
6 – San Diego State Aztecs (6-6, 3-5)
Biggest OOC Game: @ Missouri on 9/18
The third of four teams to return 16 starters, the Aztecs need a great of help along the offensive line, as recruiting didn’t net them they players they hoped to get, but they should still be much improved this season; a very favorable schedule will help. Using a 3-3-5 defense, they were able to sign eight new DB’s so they can try to give up fewer points. Every time they gave up 30 or more points last year they lost, so the defense will really need to step up their game to keep this team in it. The offense will be much improved, so the defense will need to get the job done.
Offensive Player to Watch: WR Vincent Brown – The senior had 45 catches for 778 yards and 6 touchdowns before an injury cost him the rest of his season. Expect him to be the leading target for returning QB Ryan Lindley and if he has a big year the Aztecs most likely will as well.
Defensive Player to Watch: “Aztec Back” Andrew Preston – This senior OLB has been moved to the preferred spot on Defensive Coordinator Rocky Long’s defense and is looking for a big year. His leadership and experience on the team should allow him to mold these new DB’s and make this defense something to fear.
7 – Colorado State Rams (3-9, 2-6)
Biggest OOC Game: Colorado on 9/4
This team has a long uphill battle to return to its former glory and this year is not likely to be the one where they make a great leap forward. They have a very young team and are looking for some great performances to get them back to a bowl game. They are sitting in this position because of home games with UNLV and New Mexico which will likely be their only wins in the conference this year.
Offensive Player to Watch: QB Pete Thomas – The freshman has really stepped it up during spring ball and became the offensive leader for this team; he is obviously the front runner for the starting job this fall.
Defensive Player to Watch: OLB Ricky Brewer – He missed 2009 due to a suspension for an undisclosed violation of team rules. His leadership and performance is critical in strengthening this defense and making it a better, more cohesive unit.
8 – UNLV Rebels (2-11, 1-7)
Biggest OOC Games: Wisconsin on 9/4 and @ West Virginia on 10/9
New head coach Bobby Hauck, who was 80-17 with three FCS championship game appearances as the coach of the Montana Grizzlies, will certainly have his work cut out for him as he leads a team against nine teams that played in a bowl game last season while five of those teams will likely start the season nationally ranked in the top 25. They return 16 starters, but they are also going fro the spread to the more traditional I-Formation with a new offensive coordinator. Look for this team to struggle for the first year and for wins to be few and far between.
Offensive Player to Watch: QB’s Mike Clausen and Omar Clayton. Clayton is the returning starter and both of these juniors would like to make a solid contribution on the field this season. It was pretty even through the spring, so the starter is still in doubt. Clausen did miss the end of spring ball with a concussion so Clayton most likely has the edge right now.
Defensive Player to Watch: DL Isaako Aaitui – A 6-5, 305 pound monster who could make a big name for himself if he plays well this season. He certainly has the size to be successful in the NFL, but can he make the leap in his performance? Only time will tell, but look for him to lead the way with talented help in the secondary to back him up.
9 – New Mexico Lobos (1-11, 0-8)
Biggest OOC Game: @ Oregon on 9/4
A struggling team under the direction of Coach Mike Locksley could see its only shot at a win on October 9th at in-state rival New Mexico State. If the Lobos can’t win this game, it is very likely they will go winless this season. While they were playing better at the close of 2009, an 0-3 start after games with Oregon, Texas Tech, and Utah could easily destroy any and all confidence this team has and doom them to a long season. Anticipate this team spending a great deal of time in TBDPITL’s Not So Top 10 this season and for Coach Locksley’s seat to get a bit hot before it is all said and done.
Offensive Player to Watch: RB’s Demond Dennis and Kasey Carrier – Both of these sophomores are vastly improved and have looked very good in the spring, but they will need a lot of help from as of now unknown starting QB to get things going.
Defensive Player to Watch: MLB Carmen Messina – As the nation’s leading tackler last year, look for this junior to really step up his game and try to become an NFL force like former Lobo and current Chicago Bear, Brian Urlacher. He should have another monster year as the leader of this defense.