The Degenerate Gambler's Early Look at The Dance

It comes about every February. It isn't fair. It sometimes can get a little sloppy. Parts of the body that shouldn't be sore and abused are sore and abused. And at the end, a lot of people end up crying. Valentine's Day! And early looks at the NCAA tournament. In effort to get you not-divorced for putting 5 large on a team because frigging Dick(less) Vitale says they're good (hint: they're in the ACC?), here's a quickie of teams to avoid, bank on, and sleep with on basketball's prom night.

Legit Contenders (that you figure are contenders)

Kentucky: I remember Nicole. Shit, she was hot. 2 and a half years off and on I spent with her, a sharp contrast from the 2 and a half hours most girls got. And I never closed the deal. Nothing. Welcome to my blue, blue balls. Like the UK commercials. UK has the most talent. More than anyone. They might end up stonewalling you like Nicole did to me, but basketball is one of the rare sports where talent overcomes apathy, and John Wall is too fast for anyone to guard at the college level, and him getting in the lane makes the supporting cast better than it really is.

Duke: Normally, Duke lacks 2 things. Depth and athleticism. What they don't lack? A bunch of white guys who can hoop (every single one still remaining I think). John (I'm gonna kick your ass back to the) Scheyer is JJ Redick with more handles and court vision. Nolan Smith breaks down the D to keep Coach K from being nothing but a perimeter team that loses to the first good club they run into. And they have scores of big oafs down low (Plumlees) to allow the team to play agressive but not overly worried about foul trouble. This is Coach K's best shot at a title since Elton Brand was around, assuring that Elton is not just a queer man's name.

Villanova: I rode Nova last year in my brackets to enough money to live off of Denny's for a month, 3 meals a day. They might be better this year. They have the smartest backcourt in college basketball in Reynolds and Fisher. That's huge. Because college ball is guard dominated. Both play defense. Harder than a wedding dick. They do lack experience and major talent down low, which could be a deterrent if you're thinking on throwing the doublewide on them.

Kansas: Kansas is kind of frigging obvious. Like when you see bloody panties on the ground in the morning, you either are very proud of yourself for such a rough conquest the night before, or your wife's on the rag. When you go out of the bedroom and she chucks a frying pan at your head, you know your answer. Cole Aldrich needs to shore up the free throw shooting, however. Sherron Collins is "this year's guy who doesn't let his team lose." Reminds me of Mateen Cleaves. Only with actual offensive game.

Expect an Natty Title Sleeper among this bunch

Purdue: They have one of the few NBA ready big men in the game. Jajuan Johnson is a defensive behemoth. No player knows how to tilt the game on defense like him right now. Nun. Like the religious virgin types. They also spread the floor with slashing G E'Twan Moore and light up the lamp with Robbie Hummel, who looks like he's 15 and shoots like he's Larry Bird.

Gonzaga: At one point, Mark Few will get his final 4 bid. The one Gonzaga has been cockteasing the nation with for about a decade now when they made their first Elite 8 run. Matt Bouldin is the latest installment of "white, floppy haired guy who for some reason can hoop the shit outta the ball". The difference is Elias Harris, a Frosh who makes this the first Gonzaga team that has had the outside game and the slashing to really be multi-dangerous. The WCC schedule might lull them to sleep every year, and this year again, however.

Georgetown: I dislike Georgetown. Perhaps it was because my early hears of watching hoops or getting into it (as like, a 2-5 year old, seriously) came during the "Hoya Paranoia" era. Anything related to the school makes me want to root for whoever they're playing against, even if it's wearing a Mo Clarett jersey. But John Thompson the Young has developed a school with a consistent array of dominating inside game (see: Duke) and athletic wing defenders. Teams with their kind of floor coverage can often make up for defensive lapses.

Kansas State: I can't stand Frank Martin. Rather play for Stalin. The dead or alive version. But his team is guard savvy and plays at a breakneck pace. They can play on the offensive glass, have range, and most imporantly have the confidence after nearly knocking off KU that they can beat anyone. They look like the type of team galvanized by a tough loss as proof that they can hang. Also, they're close knit.  Which is big deal, when playing "for the guy's career next to you" means a little more effort.

Other, non-title contending sleepers

Baylor: Baylor? Sports? Success? In Waco, finally, everyone should be drinking the Kool-Aid. Ekpe Udoh is human leprocy. You'd be well advised to stay away from him. Even David Koresh roots for this bunch. They're long, terrifying in the paint, and have a gamer in Tweety Carter who finishes at the rim as well as any slashing PG in the game, a direct result of going up against the trees in practice. An overall lack of halfcourt offense will doom them in the end, but not until a deep run possibly.

Old Dominion: Free blow job from Lindsey Lohan if you know where ODU is and don't live in the state. Free anal from a mummified Monarch if you knew that was their mascot. If ODU has a 12 seed, you might heed notice. Though they've struggled on the road generally speaking, they did win @ Georgetown, showing a crucial ability to show up in big moments. Unlike some middies, they're bigger down low.

New Mexico: Remember when people were SURE Steve Alford could coach? Then they got all surprised when he flunked out at Iowa? He's revived The Pit, and New Mexico is scary good. They'd win the Pac 10 going away. They have a traditional stingy Alford D. They defend pick and rolls very well. They're physical. Have multiple scorers. In short, they have a combination no one wants to see.

Washington: I'm going deep, deep, deep here. Balls deep. Paris Hilton can barely take it in her cornhole deep. The Pac 10 is awful. Dreadful. And miserable. It's conference champ might get a 7-10 seed. That's Horizon League fodder right there. But Washington is inexplicably bad, meaning they should be good. Isiah Thomas (the one that doesn't sexually harass women) plays at an electric speed, but is limited offensively. Quincy Pondexter is one of the best kept secrets and is an NBA player. As bad as the Pac is, people might overlook U Dub. This is a streaky, streaky team prone to slow starts. If they get on a roll, however, especially on the offensive glass, they're sweet 16. Like Miley. Only not near as hot.

Kent State: Big, quick, physical, and sleek around the peremiter. Their help defense is suffocating. If you're a bad team, they'll drag you out into the street and bullwhip you by 40. Problem is, most teams in the NCAA tourney don't overly suck.

Miiiight wanna avoid these guys

Michigan State: I have the ankles of a 75 year old man with osteoporosis because of basketball. They don't heal well. And Kalin Lucas won't be right the rest of the year. Make no mistake, Purdue clubbing them in Lansing wouldn't have happened that way without Lucas, their leader and best overall player. He's as clutch as anyone in the nation. And he's the PG. Also, despite having the traditional Izzo toughness....the kind that eats herpes and washes it down with mercury...they are small inside and miss Paul Davis. Teams with trees bother them.

Texas: Speaking of trees, Texas has Dex Pittman, who's a sequoia of a college aged man. Problem is, as good as he is, he's slow afoot and Texas lacks any peremiter D...or O to shield him. He can get in foul trouble. And Texas is an awfully peremiter oriented team for one that really can't shoot worth a dick. They also lack any and all momentum right now. Which is vastly overrated going into the tourney. But Damien James really is the beginning and they end. Their PG Balbay wouldn't start on my Sunday night rec league team.

West Virginia: Athletic, but Bob Huggins recent NCAA tourney record can't be ignored. Enough game film of him completely wasting the talents of Danny Fortson, Damon Flint, and Kenyon Martin is enough to make me drink and drive too. They need a tough, Nazi looking guy like they had last year, otherwise they're just a bunch of 5 star athletes. In a real "show up" game against Nova last week at home, they crapped their pants when they were unable to beat Nova inside and let their G's do work all 2nd half. They've made a living beating on the teams they should. Problem is, after the 1st round, they might not get anymore of those.

Tennessee: Bruce Pearl's club has been overachieving since half the university said no to the NBA draft and started prepping to play prison yard ball for the next 3-5...and maybe a long term deal if they can shank a guard (but not a center). They are berift of talent, however, and are just a plucky bunch who needs to stay in games because they lack comeback ability. Their press can overwhelm you, because most teams don't press at this level all game, but they're not consistent enough on the offensive end. Chism is a good player down low, but he frequently lets big men get too low on the block, as many full court defensive teams do because a smart big man will immediately go to the very low block or in front of the rim. Their perimeter players lack quickness and they don't have an enforcer around the rim. It's a high effort, high energy team, but if you can spread the floor and force their press to be ineffective, you'll roast them. They're not deep enough to run the defense THEY want to the entire game, and can tire. Get up by 10-12, and it'll feel closer to 20 for them.