BCS Picture Not Much Clearer
By Joe Phelps
The gigantic sigh you heard this past Saturday was the BCS powers that be letting out a huge sigh of relief as TCU topped Boise State and handing the Broncos their first loss. It probably killed their hopes at the BCS title game.
Or did it?
Well, in Boise State's case, it would take an unprecedented sequence of miracles for them to earn a spot to play for the National title. For others with one loss, their aspirations grew stronger with Oregon's dispatching of the vaunted Stanford Cardinal and Andrew Luck. There's a theme being established here that will echo the rest of the season.
Expect the unexpected. Boise State and Stanford should have taken care of business in their own backyards. They whiffed just as Alabama's field goal kicker did in Tuscaloosa where the Crimson Tide should have handled things against LSU. Oklahoma was stunned at home by Texas Tech, a team that Oklahoma State scorched 66-6 in Lubbock.
Sanity is lost. Even Les Miles is off his nut more than usual by giving Jefferson the full time gig ahead of Lee...but that is another discussion (just not entirely another discussion).
My point is, by this time of the year, you normally have a good grip of who is #1 and a strong feeling as to who their opponent may be. At the very least it is whittled down to Boise State and two 1 loss teams.
Not this year.
Not even mighty LSU is a sure bet for the BCS title game. So here's a list and the dangers in front of the current contenders for the BCS title (and take this with a grain of salt as it is coming from a guy who thought Alabama would beat LSU in Tuscaloosa AND I wrote an article last week about how Boise State deserved a shot this year...pffft!)
LSU- They are #1 and riding high. The Tigers beat #2 Alabama and almost have this SEC thing wrapped up...or do they? I should be the last one to question Les, and screwing with the starting spot at QB is usually not a good thing to do. It was perfectly ok last week because that was Western Kentucky...so could this become an issue down the road?
"Danger Will Robinson, Danger!" Arkansas has won 6 in a row (and you can make it 7 with a win over Mississippi State) and have a date with you on November 25th in Death Valley. You are officially on upset alert Tiger Nation. A win by the Razorbacks would certainly hurt and possibly end LSU's BCS title hopes.
And let's not forget about that little thing called the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. They will almost certainly be facing a Georgia Bulldog team that will have won 10 in a row, are finally healthy on both sides of the ball, and have finally found their identity. The final leg of the season isn't exactly a "gimme" for the Bayou Bengals.
Oklahoma State- Man, do they look impressive gutting Texas Tech, the very same Red Raiders that handed Oklahoma their lone loss...at home...this season. They are averaging 565 yards a game on offense and working the scoreboard operators silly on Saturdays. Weeden is a true Heisman contender and he has so many weapons at his disposal. The question is: Can their 101st ranked defense play good enough for them to win the BCS title?
Emergency Broadcast System has issued a Severe Storm Warning for Stillwater- The Sooners will be coming into Stillwater presumably with just that stinging loss to Texas Tech and a chance to play for the BCS title. The same will be on the line for the Cowboys. This is where Oklahoma State's defense becomes a liability...not to mention they will be facing the #4 offense in the country.
Alabama- Could there be a rematch for the BCS title? It is highly unlikely, yet there Alabama sits with just one loss and within striking distance. They have a great defense and a solid game manager at quarterback. Factor in the genius that is Saban and a beast running back in Trent Richardson, the Crimson Tide definitely have the pedigree to play for the BCS title.
Those Missed Field Goals Hurt! Now Alabama has to depend on Southern California AND Oklahoma to win and for the Sooners NOT to jump them in the BCS standings. Add to this madness the possibility of LSU stumbling to Arkansas and/or Georgia and who knows what the future holds for Alabama.
Oregon- WOW! Did they look impressive against Stanford. They seemed to be able to score at will and the offense is loaded. The defense makes plays when it counts the most as the Ducks are playing some of the best football in the country right now. They have their sights set on the PAC 12 Championship Game and beyond.
Just Like Alabama- Many will claim, that just like Alabama, the Ducks already had their shot and blew it. That was waaaay back in week 1. Taking the rematch factor out of consideration, Oregon still has to entertain Southern California as well as facing the PAC 12 South Champion before they can think about playing for the BCS crystal. Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State may hurt the Ducks more than help. Ideally...LSU loses to Arkansas and the to Georgia in the SEC title game with Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma.
Oklahoma- The Sooners find themselves still in the BCS picture after a humiliating defeat at home against Texas Tech. They are also without the services of one of the greatest receivers of all time in one Mr. Broyles. They boast the #4 offense in the country backed by a solid defense.
It's About Time! Oklahoma State is licking their chops and aside from those ranked ahead of them, they are the Sooners biggest hurdle to get to the BCS title game. The Cowboys will be highly motivated to close out their first ever undefeated season and their first true shot at a National Championship.
Clemson: The loss to Georgia Tech is really hurting them, yet the find themselves in the hunt for the BCS title. An explosive offense with Sammy Watkins and Tahj Boyd leading the way make Clemson a formidable opponent. Are they too far back to make a serious push?
It's Crowded At The Top- Lot's of teams in front of the Tigers for sure...and they aren't even done with their season. They have pesky in state rival South Carolina left and a possible rematch with Virginia tech in the ACC title game. The Tigers will need some help in front of them to have a chance at the BCS title game berth...I just don't think it is in the cards for them.
Houston- One of only 3 undefeated teams left, their schedule and perceived lack of defense is killing them. Case Keenum should be near the top of everyone's Heisman ballot, but the Cougars are definitely off of most everyone's radar. Winning their last 3 against SMU, Tulsa, and potentially a ranked 1 loss Southern Miss team for the CUSA title could help their cause.
It's C-USA- And most cannot get over that...winning out gives them a BCS bowl berth and that will be about it. The Cougars still have a better shot at making it to the BCS title game than Boise State does.