Maestro’s Bowl Game Analysis 2010-2011
Each team is given a Team Ranking Score (TRS) which is the average of 8 numbers : Scoring Offense Rank, Scoring Defense Rank, Total Offense Rank, Total Defense Rank, Opponents Winning Percentage Rank, Penalties Yards Rank, Turnover Margin Rank, and Time of Possession Rank.
Games to which a team has to travel 150 miles or fewer are designated as Home Games.
This is just a way to look at these teams and in not to be used for gambling purposes.
Ultimately these numbers don't mean much once the ball is kicked off. I understand that. They are just interesting to me when attempting to quantitatively compare teams. Passion, match ups, coaching and a million other NON STATISTICAL things really decide the game, but that doesn't stop me from trying to look deeper into the game. That is what this is all about.
A TRS difference of less than 10 points is seen as basically a push. Each game is classified as either a TRS : PUSH, SOLID ADVANTAGE or BLOWOUT.
New Mexico Bowl
BYU TRS = 51.1
UTEP TRS = 76.9
Advantage BYU by 25.8 = BLOWOUT
Result : BYU 52 - UTEP 24
Humanitarian Bowl
Northern Illinois TRS = 31
Fresno State TRS = 62.5
Advantage UNI by 31.5 = BLOWOUT
Result : NIU 40 - Fresno St 17
New Orleans Bowl
Ohio TRS = 62.1
Troy TRS = 78.1
Advantage Ohio by 16 = SOLID ADVANTAGE
Result : Troy 48 - Ohio 21
St Petersburg Bowl
Southern Mississippi TRS = 50
Louisville TRS = 53.6
Advantage Southern Miss by 3.6 = PUSH
Result : Louisville 31 - USM 28
Las Vegas Bowl
Boise State TRS = 26.6
Utah TRS = 47.8
Advantage Boise by 21.2 = BLOWOUT
Result : Boise 26 - Utah 3
Poinsettia Bowl
Navy TRS = 37.5
San Diego State TRS = 62.4
Advantage Navy by 24.9 = BLOWOUT
This is a home game for SDSU
Result : SDSU 35 - Navy 14
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii TRS = 52.4
Tulsa TRS = 54.9
Advantage Hawaii by 2.5 = PUSH
This is a HOME GAME for Hawaii
Result : Tulsa 62 - Hawaii 35
Little Caesars Bowl
Florida International TRS = 63.5
Toledo TRS = 68
Advantage Toledo by 4.5 = PUSH
This is a HOME GAME for Toledo
Result : FIU 34 - Toledo 32
Independence Bowl
Air Force TRS = 39.5
Georgia Tech TRS = 55.4
Advantage AFA by 15.9 = SOLID ADVANTAGE
Result : AFA 14 - GT 7
Champs Sports Bowl
West Virginia TRS = 36.6
N.C. State TRS = 30.1
Advantage NCSU by 6.5 = PUSH
Result : NC State 23 - WVU 7
Insight Bowl
Missouri TRS = 41.8
Iowa TRS = 28.4
Advantage Iowa by 13.4 = SOLID ADVANTAGE
Result : Iowa 27 - MU 24
Military Bowl
Maryland TRS = 60.3
East Carolina TRS = 74.8
Advantage Maryland by 14.5 = SOLID ADVANTAGE
This is a HOME GAME for Maryland
Result : Maryland 51 - ECU 20
Texas Bowl
Illinois TRS = 38.3
Baylor TRS = 62.8
Advantage Illinois by 24.5 = BLOWOUT
Result : Illinois 38 - Baylor 14
Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma State TRS = 52.8
Arizona TRS = 43.5
Advantage Arizona by 9.3 = PUSH
Result : OKSU 36 - Arizona 10
Bell Helicopter Bowl
Army TRS = 45
SMU TRS = 54
Advantage Army by 9 = PUSH
This is a HOME GAME for SMU
Result : Army 16 - SMU 14
Pinstripe Bowl
Kansas State TRS = 49.9
Syracuse TRS = 73.5
Advantage KSU by 23.6 = BLOWOUT
Result : Syracuse 36 - KSU 34
Music City Bowl
North Carolina TRS = 52.5
Tennessee TRS = 57.9
Advantage UNC by 5.4 = PUSH
This is a HOME GAME for Tennessee
Result : UNC 30 - Tennessee 27 2OT
Holiday Bowl
Washington TRS = 63.6
Nebraska TRS = 39.5
Advantage Nebraska by 24.1 = BLOWOUT
Result : Washington 19 - Nebraska 7
Meineke Car Care Bowl
South Florida TRS = 65.8
Clemson TRS = 60.1
Advantage Clemson by 5.7 = PUSH
Result : USF 31 - Clemson 26
Sun Bowl
Notre Dame TRS = 53
Miami FL TRS = 52.8
Advantage Miami by 0.2 = PUSH
Result : ND 33 - Miami 17
Liberty Bowl
Georgia TRS = 36.3
Central Florida TRS = 34.6
Advantage UCF by 1.7 = PUSH
Result : UCF 10 - UGA 6
Chick-Fil-A Bowl
South Carolina TRS = 32.8
Florida State TRS = 48.4
Advantage South Carolina by 15.6 = SOLID ADVANTAGE
Result : FSU 26 - USC 17
Ticket City Bowl
Texas Tech TRS = 69.6
Northwestern TRS = 73
Advantage Texas Tech by 3.4 = PUSH
Result : Texas Tech 45 - NW 38
Outback Bowl
Florida TRS = 51.4
Penn State TRS = 46
Advantage PSU by 5.4 = PUSH
This is a HOME GAME for Florida
Result : UF 37 - PSU 24
Gator Bowl
Mississippi State TRS = 38.1
Michigan TRS = 64.3
Advantage Miss State by 25.8 = BLOWOUT
Result : MSU 52 - UM 14
Capitol One Bowl
Alabama TRS = 16.5
Michigan State TRS = 42
Advantage Alabama by 25.5 = BLOWOUT
Result : Bama 49 - MSU 7
Rose Bowl
TCU TRS = 16.4
Wisconsin TRS = 18.8
Advantage TCU by 2.4 = PUSH
Result : TCU 21 - Wisky 19
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma TRS = 27.6
Connecticut TRS = 50.4
Advantage OU by 22.8 = BLOWOUT
Result : OU 48 - UCONN 20
Orange Bowl
Stanford TRS = 17.1
Virginia Tech TRS = 24.1
Advantage Stanford by 7 = PUSH
Result : Stanford 40 - VT 12
Sugar Bowl
Ohio State TRS = 16.8
Arkansas TRS = 40
Advantage OSU by 23.2 = BLOWOUT
Result : OSU 31 - Arkansas 26
Godaddy.com Bowl
Middle Tennessee TRS = 87.9
Miami OH TRS = 55.5
Advantage Miami OH by 32.4 = BLOWOUT
Result : Miami OH 35 - MTSU 21
Cotton Bowl
Texas A&M TRS = 45
LSU TRS = 38.6
Advantage LSU by 6.4 = PUSH
Result : LSU 41 - TAMU 24
Compass Bowl
Pittsburgh TRS = 42.8
Kentucky TRS = 54.8
Advantage Pitt by 12 = SOLID ADVANTAGE
Result : Pitt 27 - UK 10
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Nevada TRS = 34.6
Boston College TRS = 54.5
Advantage Nevada by 19.9 = SOLID ADVANTAGE
Result : Nevada 20 - BC 13
National Championship Game
Oregon TRS = 40.8
Auburn TRS = 38.9
Advantage Auburn by 1.9 = PUSH
Result : Auburn 22 - Oregon 19
Rankings by TRS
1. TCU 16.4
2. Alabama 16.5
3. Ohio State 16.8
4. Stanford 17.1
5. Wisconsin 18.8
6. Virginia Tech 24.1
7. Boise State 26.6
8. Oklahoma 27.6
9. Iowa 28.4
10. NC State 30.1
11. Northern Illinois 31
12. South Carolina 32.8
13. Nevada 34.6
13. UCF 34.6
15. Georgia 36.3
16. West Virginia 36.6
17. Navy 37.5
18. Mississippi State 38.1
19. Illinois 38.3
20. LSU 38.6
21. Auburn 38.9
22. Air Force 39.5
22. Nebraska 39.5
24. Arkansas 40
25. Oregon 40.8
26. Missouri 41.8
27. Michigan State 42
28. Pittsburgh 42.8
29. Arizona 43.5
30. Texas A&M 45
30. Army 45
32. Penn State 46
33. Utah 47.8
34. Florida State 48.4
35. Kansas State 49.9
36. Southern Mississippi 50
37. Connecticut 50.4
38. BYU 51.1
39. Florida 51.4
40. Hawaii 52.4
41. North Carolina 52.5
42. Oklahoma State 52.8
43. Miami FL 52.8
44. Notre Dame 53
45. Louisville 53.6
46. SMU 54
47. Boston College 54.5
48. Kentucky 54.8
49. Tulsa 54.9
50. Georgia Tech 55.4
51. Miami OH 55.5
52. Tennessee 57.9
53. Clemson 60.1
54. Maryland 60.3
55. Ohio 62.1
56. San Diego State 62.4
57. Fresno State 62.5
58. Baylor 62.8
59. Florida International 63.5
60. Washington 63.6
61. Michigan 64.3
62. South Florida 65.8
63. Toledo 68
64. Texas Tech 69.6
65. Northwestern 73
66. Syracuse 73.5
67. East Carolina 74.8
68. UTEP 76.9
69. Troy 78.1
70. Middle Tennessee 87.9
Home Field Advantage Teams
San Diego State
Hawaii
Toledo
Maryland
SMU
Tennessee
Florida
Biggest TRS Mismatches
Miami OH over Middle Tennessee - 32.4
Northern Illinois over Fresno State - 31.5
BYU over UTEP - 25.8
Mississippi State over Michigan - 25.8
Alabama over Michigan State - 25.5
Closest TRS Match Ups
Miami FL over Notre Dame - 0.2
UCF over UGA - 1.7
Auburn over Oregon - 1.9
TCU over Wisconsin - 2.4
Hawaii over Tulsa - 2.5
Final Results
Straight up TRS score : 24-11 average score 28-21
Blowout category : 9-3 average score 35-19
Solid Advantage : 5-2 average score 25-21
Home Teams : 3-4